Surrey on the Rise

🌆 Surrey on the Rise: Immigration, Families, and the City’s Future

Cities grow in surprising ways. Some explode in size in just a few generations, while others expand steadily over decades. Surrey, BC is currently on a path of rapid growth, fueled largely by immigration and cultural family trends. Let’s explore what this could mean for the city in the coming decades. 🏙️

📊 Population Growth Over the Past Five Years

• From 2016 to 2021, Surrey’s population grew by over 51,000 people, averaging more than 28 new residents per day.
• Immigration has been a major driver:
  • 2016: 38,085 new immigrants
  • 2021: 69,470 new immigrants

This rapid influx is reshaping the city’s demographics and cultural landscape. 🌎

🧑‍🤝‍🧑 South Asian Community in Surrey

• 2021 Census Data: 212,680 South Asians reside in Surrey (~37.8% of the city).
• Ethnic Breakdown:
  • Indian (India): 117,770
  • Punjabi: 49,065
  • Other South Asian origins (Pakistani, Sri Lankan, Bangladeshi, etc.): remainder

The community is growing not just in numbers but in cultural institutions, businesses, and neighborhood presence. 🕌🍴🎉

📈 Current Situation and Fertility Trends

• Surrey population: ~650,000
• South Asian population: ~212,000 (37–38%)
• Median age of South Asians: ~33 years → many women in childbearing age (15–49)
• Fertility trends: Historically higher than Canadian average (~2–3 children per woman vs Canada ~1.3)

👶 Estimating Births Over the Next 5–10 Years

• Women aged 15–49 in South Asian community: ~85,000
• Average children per woman over next decade: ~2 (conservative)

Calculation: 85,000 women × 2 kids = ~170,000 new South Asian children in 10 years (~17,000 per year)

Add in: children from other populations + continued immigration → more young families arriving. 📈

🏠 Implications for Surrey

• In 10 years: 650,000 → 800,000–900,000
• By 2050: could exceed 1.5–2 million depending on immigration and fertility
• South Asians may become the largest cultural group, shaping schools, neighborhoods, and community life

⚖️ Bottom Line

Immigration + higher fertility = steady, strong growth. If cultural trends toward larger families continue, growth could accelerate beyond current city planning projections. Housing, transit, schools, and healthcare will feel the pressure first. 🏘️🚍🏫🏥

🔮 Looking Ahead

Given current trends, Surrey may become the largest city in BC by 2040. Its South Asian community will play a central role in shaping the city’s culture, economy, and social landscape. Cities don’t grow by accident—they are shaped by migration, culture, and policy. 🏙️

💡 Reflective Questions for Everyone

We encourage readers from all walks of life to reflect on these trends:

For people born and raised in Surrey: How have you personally seen Surrey change, and how has it affected your sense of community?

For newcomers: How has moving to Surrey shaped your experience of Canadian life and your cultural identity?

For kids and teens who experienced COVID-19: How did the pandemic change the way you experience school, public spaces, and friendships?

For seniors: How has the changing population affected your sense of belonging, safety, or access to services?

For people who are homeless or sick: How does rapid urban growth affect access to housing, healthcare, and support services?

For doctors, nurses, and professionals considering Surrey: How do you see Surrey’s population growth affecting healthcare demand and infrastructure?

For professionals: What opportunities or challenges do you see for collaborating with community organizations to improve health outcomes?

For families: How do you hope Surrey supports young families in the next decade?

For community leaders: How can we balance growth with equitable access to housing, schools, and services?

For all residents: What do you hope Surrey looks and feels like in 10, 20, or 50 years?

📢 Stay Tuned: Part of a Series

This post is just the beginning. Over the coming weeks, we’ll explore:

• How housing, schools, and transit will keep up with growth
• The challenges and opportunities of a younger, diverse population
• Comparisons with other fast-growing cities around the world

Stay tuned as we dive deeper into the numbers, the culture, and the stories shaping Surrey’s future. 🌟